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Frank Warnock |
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2009 Q4 GEM FY Elective: Global
Financial Markets (GBUS 751) ·
Currencies that are allowed to float have moved sharply
the past few years. What explains recent currency movements, and what
will the likely directions be in 2009 and beyond? In Global Financial Markets, we will tackle these issues and more. The main objective is to develop the technical skills that enable students to improve their understanding of current conditions in global financial markets, especially those for currencies and interest rates. We focus on global financial markets, but because interest rates and exchange rates are driven by, among other things, the state of the economy, and in turn impact future economic performance, students can use this course to solidify their knowledge of global economics. Throughout, our thinking will be anchored in models—Technical Notes will both elaborate on the models and help the students translate them into actual data series—but our applications will be from the real world. The anchoring in theory is important: In your careers you will come across many ‘fad’ explanations for why the past didn’t turn out as planned or why the future will be different. With the experience of applying a small toolkit of theory to many situations, you will have the ability to examine fad explanations—indeed, any explanation—within a tight logical framework. To the extent that students decide that predicting interest rate and currency movements is a fool’s game, we will also analyze hedging strategies that allow firms and investors to manage currency and interest rate exposure. The course will include cases, short technical notes, outside readings from the Street and elsewhere, current data to analyze, and three guest discussion leaders. Your course grade will be 40% participation and 60% final exam. Class 1 (March 17)
Outlook 2009: A Changed Regime (The Bank Credit Analyst, vol. 60 no. 7) Class 2 (March 18)
The Determinants of
Interest Rates (UVA-BP-0489) Class 3 (March 23)
The Yield Curve as a Leading Indicator:
Frequently Asked Questions (NY Fed) Class 4 (March 24)Liability Management at General Motors (HBS-9-293-123) Class 5 (March 30) Exchange Rate Models (UVA-BP-0496) Class 6 (March 31)
FX Strategies in 2006: Dollar v. Yen
(UVA-BP-0505) Class 7 (April 1)
The Oil Market
Will the Oil Market Continue To Be Tight?
(IMF WEO 2005:1 Chapter 4) Class 8 (April 6)Medium-Term FX
Strategies Class 9 (April 7)
Hedging Currency Risks at AIFS (HBS
9-205-026) Class 10 (April 13) Hong Kong’s Financial Crisis 1997-1998 (HKU031) Class 11 (April 14)
Early Warning
Systems (UVA-BP-0497) Classes 12 and 13 (April 20/21)Emerging Market Country Presentations Class 14 (April 27)Long-Term FX
Strategies Class 15 (April 28)Outlook 2009: A Changed Regime (The Bank Credit Analyst, vol. 60 no. 7) Final Exam Case: Whither the US Economy? (BP-0542) |