DAO Web Page of Fame

Celebrating Summer Successes Since 2006

  INDUCTEE:  Rick Ramsey

YEAR:   2006

CATEGORY: Time Series

 


Rick Ramsey built a time series forecasting model to help Gilbarco forecast monthly sales of its main product, gas dispensers. Gilbarco sells about 900 dispensers per month through their core distributor channel. The predictions from the Ramsey-built model will be used to identify monthly material needs, reduce lead times, and increase inventory turns. At $9,000 per dispenser, the savings should be substantial.

The model was a Winter's smoothing model which accounts for cycle, trend, and seasonality. Ramsey build the model from scratch using Excel. He used Excel's Solver tool to optimize the three smoothing parameters.